Fantasy
9/2/24
3 min read
By C.H. Herrmann
Fantasy Writer
The fantasy football season is officially here.
Teams have been drafted, lineups have been set, and the excitement of a full slate of games on television is no longer a dream. This weekend will mark the return of the regular season.
With that return comes the time to buckle down and make strategic decisions. Every single head-to-head matchup is vitally important. You can’t win the championship if you don’t make the playoffs, and you can’t make the playoffs, well… if you don’t win.
It’s important to give yourself every opportunity to gain an edge and win every week. One of the best ways to do that is to ensure the end of your bench has lottery ticket-type players.
Who are the potential “league winners” who might take time to break out? Who are the players you can feel good about tossing onto your roster in case a core asset gets injured?
Those are the guys you need to ensure you have on your roster.
Let’s parse through a few pre-Week 1 targets who could pay dividends by looking at current rostership percentages from two of the largest fantasy platforms, Yahoo and ESPN.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
- Yahoo Rostership: 6 percent
- ESPN Rostership: 3.7 percent
Maye won’t be starting the season under center after being made the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Fantasy managers must be patient until the ex-North Carolina signal-caller gets his shot over veteran Jacoby Brissett. But the fact that it’ll take time for Maye to wiggle his way into the Patriots’ starting lineup is precisely why he should be rostered now— especially if you participate in season-long superflex leagues.
Maye brings arm talent to the table, but he also has some underrated and underappreciated running upside to his game. Per Campus2Canton, he averaged 43.7 rushing yards per game across his two seasons as North Carolina’s starting quarterback.
The rookie showcases this scrambling ability well in preseason Week 3’s matchup vs. the Washington Commanders in this highlight:
Though one could generously describe his surrounding cast of offensive weapons in New England as questionable at best, Maye clearly brings one of the most valuable athletic traits for fantasy quarterbacks. Remember that in most scoring formats, 10 rushing yards and 25 passing yards are both equal to one fantasy point.
Assuming Maye could come anywhere near his per-game rushing average from the collegiate level, that’s an easy 4.4 points per game that he wouldn’t need to achieve through the air.
And yes, we can hear you saying, “Well, he’s already rostered in my superflex league.”
Honestly, it’s even worthwhile giving Maye a look as a second fiddle for 1-QB league managers, especially if you waited at the position in your draft before landing on a veteran option like Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins. Pairing a young gun and a vet is a common fantasy QB strategy with the potential to land big with the right guys, and Maye certainly screams value.
Scoop him up if you’ve got a spot to spare.
Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
- Yahoo Rostership: 11 percent
- ESPN Rostership: 4.2 percent
At first glance, Vidal may not be the most exciting name on this list.
A sixth-round rookie running back slated to be third in line on his team’s depth chart is objectively not an awe-inspiring description. However, there’s reason for optimism here with Vidal.
First and foremost, the Chargers’ offense projects to be a very run-heavy unit.
New offensive coordinator Greg Roman held the same position with the Baltimore Ravens between 2019 and 2022. Across those four seasons, Roman’s offenses averaged a -6.2 percent pass rate over expectation, per NFELO.
The last time Jim Harbaugh coached in the NFL (San Francisco 49ers, 2011 to 2014), he produced an offense that attempted the second-fewest passes (1,791) in his four years at the helm.
Are you noticing a theme? This scheme approach will provide ample volume opportunity to the runners involved.
It’s essential to consider that former Ravens backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins signed with the Chargers this offseason. Both played under Roman in Baltimore and are already familiar with the system. Roadblocks for Vidal exist.
Dobbins is coming off a tear to his Achilles tendon from last year, and 29-year-old Edwards has yet to clear an average of 50 rushing yards per game since 2019. There's a realistic world in which Vidal can ascend into relevance, if not by injury or ailment, then definitely based on youth and merit at some point this season.
Vidal led the NCAA in carries (297) and ranked second in rushing yards (1,661) as a redshirt junior at Troy in 2023. Those accomplishments led to Vidal being named the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year and receiving an invite to the Reese’s Senior Bowl.
I attended the college showcase festivities in person and watched Vidal in practice sessions throughout that week. Vidal's explosiveness and ability to create space for himself in close quarters stood out as solid skills.
Fans were lucky enough to get a glimpse of these traits in Week 2 of the preseason against the Los Angeles Rams:
There’s no guarantee Vidal will do anything of substance in 2024— don’t get it twisted.
But the formula is there for him to hit: a run-heavy offense, question marks ahead of him, and the requisite skills to handle the job if presented with it. Those are very good boxes to have proverbially checked off.
Consider keeping Vidal stashed on your bench if you can afford the space for someone who may take some time to find relevance.
Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens
- Yahoo Rostership: 3 percent
- ESPN Rostership: 3.1 percent
To tie in with the Ravens' theme, let’s talk about one of the veteran running backs who remains on their roster from one year ago.
Derrick Henry obviously stands as the team’s RB1. It’s well within bounds to say the former All-Pro back is still one of the best at his position in the NFL, despite being at the ripe old age of 30.
But he won’t handle every backfield touch.
Hill, the incumbent change-of-pace runner, occupies a vital role for the Ravens as they wait for second-year player Keaton Mitchell to return from a late-2023 ACL tear. Considering Mitchell sustained this injury in December of last season, who knows when he’ll even be back in play.
Though Hill never racked up huge production, he was reasonably useful in 2023.
In 2023, Hill:
- Averaged 7.7 touch opportunities per game
- Tallied eight or more touch opportunities (carries + targets) in eight of sixteen games
- Averaged 10.6 points per reception (PPR) points per game across said contests with the requisite volume
It’s not a barn-burning contribution, but Hill has demonstrated he can potentially provide weekly fill-in flex value in lineups by holding a similar role behind Henry this year.
Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots
- Yahoo Rostership: 22 percent
- ESPN Rostership: 25.5 percent
The Patriots’ offense boasts mostly less-than-stellar playmakers around Drake Maye.
None of the team’s pass-catchers has a strong track record of success. One could argue that TE Hunter Henry deserves some credit (and he should be a deep league add for people, too). Otherwise, the trio of Demario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, and Tyquan Thornton have accomplished very little to this point in their collective careers.
Polk enters New England as the 37th overall pick from the 2024 NFL Draft. The University of Washington product posted a 69-1,159-9 receiving line across his final season in the high-flying Huskies offense. He walks into the building as the receiver with the highest offensive upside, given his college production at such a high level of competition.
In reality, few threats exist to Polk’s ability to ascend within the pecking order for targets and find a steady role reasonably early in the regular season.
Call it a hunch, or whatever term you’d like to assign, but if we’re to be even remotely interested in Maye’s fantasy upside, at least one of his weapons should carry similar intrigue.
Polk's lack of target competition and high pedigree make him the favorite for fantasy purposes, especially considering the other name from this receiving corps worth noting (Douglas) is generally being drafted with an early enough ADP not to qualify for this piece.
Taysom Hill, TE, NEw Orleans Saints
- Yahoo Rostership: 46 percent
- ESPN Rostership: 40 percent
Trying to pinpoint precisely when Hill will have a spike week in fantasy is a challenging task.
The Saints’ offense deploys the do-it-all Swiss Army knife in myriad ways, and sometimes seemingly at random. Regardless, it’s hard to argue against his fantasy results when allowed to have the ball in his hands more frequently.
Just last year alone, Hill recorded seven games in which he touched the ball at least nine times. Mind you, because this is Taysom Hill we’re talking about, that includes carries, receptions, and pass attempts.
Across those contests, the former BYU product averaged 81.9 scrimmage yards per game and a relatively robust 14.2 PPR points per game. For context, that fantasy production is (roughly) on par with Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta’s 14.1 points per game average in 2023.
Granted, there were also seven other games last season in which Hill posted five or fewer PPR points, so that should highlight why Hill even qualifies for this article.
But at a position like tight end, the major difference-making studs are very few and far between. Only a handful of players can catch four passes for 40 receiving yards and, if we’re lucky, a touchdown in a given week.
You could play the weekly roulette game of picking a new tight end every week to stream if you don’t have a superstar, or you could embrace the volatility of Hill and appreciate the fact he’s had three seasons of at least 140 total PPR points in the past four years.
It’s a rather bold way to play fantasy, but there are worse things you can do than ride out a lineup with Taysom Hill if you genuinely don’t know what to do with that tight end spot.
C.H. Herrmann
Fantasy Writer
C.H. 'Herms' Herrmann is a fantasy writer for The 33rd Team, leveraging his extensive experience from previous roles as a fantasy analyst and NFL writer at Draft Sharks, FantasyPros, ClutchPoints, and SB Nation. A respected voice in the fantasy football community, Herms' insights and accuracy have earned them the distinction of being the No. 1 most accurate DST ranker in FantasyPros’ ECR Draft Rankings in the 2023 season. Herms has worked in media since 2020.