Fantasy Football 2024: Finding ADP Advantages by League Host (2024)

NFL Fantasy Football league hosts often have different rankings and ADPs; exploiting this can give an advantage to shrewd fantasy managers.

Some fantasy managers, especially newer ones, rely heavily on ADP to guide when they should draft players. This means they'll often make mistakes and either overvalue or undervalue players. They'll draft players way too high, which in turn will lead to players dropping further than they should. Conversely, leagues that undervalue players will allow canny managers to get potential second—or third-round talent later in the draft.

We'll examine top fantasy assets who are being either over or underdrafted on league hosts and how managers can exploit the discrepancy.

8 De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

DraftKings ADP: 12 vs. ESPN ADP: 30

De'Von Achane is a potential league winner, but fantasy managers should be wary of picking him in the first round. The presence of Raheem Mostert and the newly drafted Jaylen Wright, combined with his slight frame (5'9, 188 lbs), means Achane will have to make the very most of the touches he does get.

He makes good use of the touches he does get, and he is arguably the most efficient back in the league. In 2023, he had a three-game stretch, recording 518 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 11.5 yards per touch. He finished the season averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game in PPR despite touching the ball 11.8 times per game.

It's hard to maintain that level of efficiency over a season, and Achane's size means he's more liable to injuries. He only saw meaningful snaps in nine games last season and missed time during the season with a knee injury. It seems likely that the volume won't be there to justify a first-round selection. He's too volatile a prospect, and there are safer picks that still have high ceilings.

However, he is still excellent value in the third round and should be snapped up by ESPN managers. Pairing him with a more reliable running back like Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson would be a sound strategy, and you'd have a formidable running back room.

7 Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings ADP: 38 vs. NFL.com ADP: 63

Zay Flowers will likely be Lamar Jackson 's number-one target in 2024, but there are good reasons to be wary about drafting him as high as 38.

Despite leading the team in receptions and receiving yards, Flowers finished as WR30 in 2023 and averaged 12.9 points per game. He was a noticeably worse fantasy asset when Mark Andrews was active and averaged 10.2 points per game when he played, which, if he had maintained for the season, would've made him WR47.

While the offseason departure of Odell Beckham Jr. will likely mean he gets more targets, the ongoing presence of Andrews will cap Flowers' fantasy production. In ten games, Andrews recorded six receiving touchdowns and averaged 6.1 targets per game and 54.4 receiving yards per game.

Moreover, while Jackson is an elite quarterback, his rushing ability limits the fantasy potential of the Baltimore Ravens ' wide receivers. The highest a receiver has ever finished with Jackson throwing him the ball is WR23. There are too many reasons to be worried about drafting him in the fourth round to be a WR2. He's best viewed as a flex option with upside, especially if Andrews has to miss any games. He's good value in the sixth round.

6 Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

Drafters ADP: 50 vs. NFL.com ADP: 81

Terry McLaurin is a productive NFL receiver who's held back in fantasy by his low touchdown numbers and the Washington Commanders ' inability to find a good quarterback. However, that could change with the arrival of Jayden Daniels .

McLaurin is an able downfield receiver and will be receiving plenty of deep shots from Daniels. In 2023, 22.7% of his targets came on deep balls (20+ air yards), and that number should go up. The more McLaurin is targeted downfield, the more touchdowns he'll likely score.

While McLaurin has stung fantasy managers before with mediocrity, he finally has the chance to break out in 2024. McLaurin has been productive despite being thrown the ball by mediocre quarterbacks, and he's in the best situation he's ever been in. New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will emphasize the passing game, while the only other receivers to get more than 20 targets last year departed in the offseason.

McLaurin should be viewed as a WR2, but managers can grab him for the price of a WR3. A sixth or seventh-round pick is excellent value for the 28-year-old.

5 Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

Underdog ADP: 19 vs. ESPN ADP: 49

Managers should be wary of drafting Jaylen Waddle in the second round. He's a fantastic talent and one of the fastest players in the NFL, but the presence of Tyreek Hill caps his ceiling.

Waddle finished the 2023 season as WR34 in PPR and only recorded over 15 points in four games despite starting 14. He was far more productive in 2022, finishing as WR8, but that was on league-leading efficiency. He led the NFL in yards per catch, with an astonishing 18.1 yards per reception.

The 25-year-old has week-winning potential, but he's firmly the WR2 on the Miami Dolphins and should not be viewed as a second-round pick. However, he's still capable of being a productive fantasy asset with Hill on the roster and is well worth picking up in the third or fourth round. ESPN managers should take advantage of his low price.

4 Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

CBS ADP: 29 vs. DraftKings ADP: 65

Rachaad White is being drafted awfully low for someone who finished as RB4 in PPR and RB8 in standard scoring last year. His role as the clear lead back for a good team gives him a relatively stable floor, and his pass-catching gives him a high ceiling in PPR formats.

While White was not the most efficient back, he was given so many touches last year that he racked up points consistently for fantasy managers, and he's poised to do so again this year. Fourth-round pick Bucky Irving adds speed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, but his relatively slight frame means he won't be able to handle more than a light workload.

It's unclear whether he'll be given nearly 20 touches again, but he's still the clear lead back, and he's been unfairly overlooked by draft experts. I'd feel comfortable taking him in the third round, and he's an absolute bargain in the fifth or sixth round.

3 Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

CBS ADP: 8 vs. Underdog ADP: 18

Saquon Barkley is the most talented running back the Philadelphia Eagles have had in a long time, and Barkley has never had such a good offensive line. However, it's unlikely he'll be as good a fantasy asset as he was when he played for the New York Giants.

Every running back on the Eagles offense has had their ceiling capped by the tush push, and despite Jason Kelce's retirement, that's unlikely to change in 2023. The play remains highly effective, and Barkley's lower body strength means he'll likely be used to push Hurts over the goal-line rather than being given goal-line looks himself.

There's also the issue of Hurts' rushing ability. When flushed out of the pocket, Hurts usually scrambles for yards rather than checking the ball down, which was a reliable source of fantasy points for Barkley, especially in PPR.

However, it's important not to discount him too much. He'll likely be a three-down back for one of the best rushing offenses in the league, and he's still an explosive rusher. He'll get plenty of touches throughout the season and should have a safe floor. The first round feels too high for him, but he's excellent value in the second round. Managers on Underdog should take advantage of the discount.

2 Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Sleeper ADP: 22 vs. DraftKings ADP: 41

Josh Allen has been the top-scoring fantasy quarterback in three out of the last four seasons and should be the first quarterback taken off the board in either the third or fourth round.

Allen is a touchdown magnet and has recorded at least six rushing touchdowns and 29 passing touchdowns in the past four seasons. He led the league with 15 rushing touchdowns last year and was the highest-scoring fantasy asset with 410.6 points.

He might not be able to repeat this in 2024. For the first time since 2019, he'll have to contend without Stefon Diggs, who the Buffalo Bills have not replaced with anyone established. While rookie Keon Coleman has plenty of talent, it usually takes time for rookie receivers to adjust to the league, and the loss of Allen's top target could hurt his passing numbers.

However, Allen being asked to do more isn't necessarily bad from a fantasy perspective. It'll likely lead to him scrambling more and picking up more rushing yards. Moreover, Diggs was not really a factor down the stretch last season. In the last eight games of the season, he averaged 43.6 receiving yards per game and only had one receiving touchdown. In the same span, Allen averaged just under 24 points per game.

Grabbing a quarterback in the second round is likely a bit too early, but anything later than that is good value, and DraftKings managers should be all over his ADP of 41.

1 Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Underdog ADP: 12 vs. ESPN ADP: 22

Projecting rookie wide receivers' fantasy production can be tricky, and drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. in the first round could really sting fantasy managers.

To be clear, Harrison is a fantastic prospect and is joining a team that needs a WR1. Quarterback Kyler Murray is capable of playing at a borderline top-ten level and has supported elite wide receiver production before. In 2020, DeAndre Hopkins finished as WR4 in PPR.

Moreover, aside from Harrison and tight end Trey McBride, the Arizona Cardinals don't have many good pass catchers. Harrison is unlikely to encounter much competition for targets, and there's a good chance he'll be peppered with targets, especially given his expected role.

Harrison's size, length, and speed mean he'll likely be the X receiver for the Cardinals, and Murray loves to throw the ball deep and outside the numbers. Hopkins, who played a similar role in 2020, saw a 29.4% target share with 160 total targets.

However, drafting him in the first round seems a bit too high. Harrison has never taken a snap in the NFL and is far less proven than the players he's drafted ahead of. It usually takes time for rookies to acclimate to the league and their quarterbacks, and his relatively low initial production may cost managers a few weeks.

Per the fantasy footballers, rookie receivers drafted in the 1-30 range have a 50% success rate and are less reliable than veteran receivers drafted around them. It makes a lot more sense to take an established receiver like Garrett Wilson , Puka Nacua or A.J. Brown at that range. Harrison is still a worthy investment in the second round, and an ADP of 22 feels low, given his talent and situation. ESPN managers should pick him up.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference, and all fantasy information courtesy of FantasyPros unless stated otherwise